I attach a revised map from the one that was submitted yesterday, this time with a broader view of the area of operations around Izyum. It includes the city of Kharkiv in the top left corner, with the surrounding villages of Rohan and Mala Rohan along its eastern edge and the town of Chuhuiv to the southeast, as well as the city of Kupiansk (the Russian base of operations) on the right side. All are labeled in English for ease of reference. Besides infantry, armor and reconnaissance, I have decided to show the approximate location of artillery and multiple launch rocket batteries, since artillery will play such a dominant role in the upcoming battles.
Meanwhile, overnight, the situation at Izyum has deteriorated for the Ukrainians, as Russian Spetsnatz (special forces) have been able to clear a good portion of the southern part of the city, although some pockets of resistance still remain in the form of elements of the local Ukrainian territorial defense battalion. When the battle began more than two weeks ago, the Ukrainians blew all of the bridges over the Northern Donets River. Therefore, the Russians have to rely on pontoon bridges to keep the mechanized battalions south of the city resupplied. The Russians have been able to expand their lodgment at Kamianka and Sukha Kamianka by occupying the village of Mala Kamyshevakha to the southwest of Izyum. Meanwhile, companies of Ukrainian paratroopers from 81st air assault brigade, 95th air assault brigade and the 25th parachute brigade are trying to contain the Russian cantonment from expanding further south towards Slovyansk. These are supported further back by tanks from a company of the 17th tank brigade in an overwatch position, which is staying out of range of Russian anti-tank missiles. The Russians are also under fire from batteries of artillery and GRAD multi-launch rockets of the 81st air assault brigade, which are located further back between Slovyansk and Barvinkove. However, the Ukrainian artillery does not compare to the weight of the multiple Russian artillery batteries firing from the northern bank of the Northern Donets. The Russians are periodically supported by attack helicopters and occasional fixed wing air attacks.
Intelligence reports indicate that the Russians are receiving reinforcements from the 4th Kantemirivska guards tank division (under normal circumstances, comprised of the 12th tank regiment, 13th tank regiment and 423d motorized regiment), which arrived by rail today at the city of Belgorod. Belgorod is a major staging area that is situated directly across the Russian border from Kharkiv. These units may be expected to go into battle by as early as tomorrow. The 4th tank division was roughly handled by the Ukrainian 93d mechanized brigade during the first week of the war in fighting near Sumy and was pulled back across the Russian border to regroup. Thus, the fighting quality of these reinforcements is unknown. It is unlikely that the Russians will be able to form more than two BTGs from these forces (approximately 1,200 men, 50 tanks and 80 armored vehicles). These are not expected to make a significant impact in the fighting. Regardless, if under further artillery bombardment, the Ukrainians may be forced to retreat further towards Slovyansk, unless they bring up significant reinforcements themselves, especially artillery. Afterall, it has become apparent that Vladimir Putin realizes that his initial invasion was a total failure and is now in search of an ostensible victory to offer the Russian people something to cheer about. What better reality TV than the recapture of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two cities that featured prominently during the fighting in the Donbas in 2014 and which captured the imagination of the Russian TV viewing public. As in Ilovaisk in 2014 and Debaltseve in 2015, Putin enjoys the leverage that comes from bartering over surrounded Ukrainian forces during peace negotiations.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians may decide to take their chances at Slovyansk and not bring up significant reinforcements. Perhaps a counterattack from Kharkiv through Chuhuiv in an easterly direction towards Shevchenkovo, halfway to the Russian base at Kupiansk, in order to threaten the Russian lines of communication to Izyum, will meet less resistance and be more effective. In fact, the Ukrainians may be better served by waiting to see how the situation develops over the next couple of days, particularly if Russian airborne troops that have just been withdrawn from the front northwest of Kyiv, are brought up as reinforcements to this sector. The paratroopers are not going to be committed into the fight until after Russian mechanized forces reach and block off Slovyansk. Therefore, it may be advantageous for the Ukrainians to wait until the entirety of the Russian forces has been sucked into the fight for the city, before launching a counterattack towards Shevchenkovo and perhaps even as far as Kupiansk, in order to cut off the Russians south of the Northern Donets River.
Thank you - great writing with great analysis too!